The Way This Strange Season Redefined the Conventional Coach of the Year Mould.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still